The polls are coming in fast and furious — and there are signs of late momentum for Hillary Clinton, whose lead has increased to roughly 3.5 percentage points over Donald Trump. Her chances of winning the Electoral College have ticked up to 69 percent in both the polls-only and polls-plus […] Read more »
Nate Silver Predicts a Close 2016 Presidential Race
Election forecaster Nate Silver said on Sunday that Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite to be the next president, but argued the race is closer than most analysts are anticipating. “The electoral math is less solid for Clinton than it was for [President Barack] Obama four years ago,” Silver said […] Read more »
Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump’s Winning Map Is Unclear
Over the last few days of the race, Donald J. Trump intends to travel all over the country. … It’s an impressive travel schedule, but it may reflect the biggest challenge facing him right now: It’s still not clear exactly where and how he would win. Hillary Clinton has a consistent […] Read more »
Is Clinton Slipping?
Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win […] Read more »
Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
… Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model — his highest probability since Oct. 2 — and 30 percent in polls-plus. Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because […] Read more »
Averaging your way to reality
Just how likely is it that the polls will be right? Notice first, I said, polls, plural, with an “s.” There is no particular reason any one poll should be “right” — except ours, of course. That’s what the statistical margin of error is all about. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman […] Read more »