With just seven days left before Election Day on November 8, the latest RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) (2,269 respondents between October 20 and November 1, 2016) indicates that the popular vote gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a significant lead of 9.1 points over Republican Donald Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson […] Read more »
The Comey Effect
The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent […] Read more »
Nate Silver was very wrong about Trump. Now, he needs to get it right.
… If a statistics guru can be a rock star, Silver surely is. But even rock stars have bad days. Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee […] Read more »
What’s wrong with the ‘right or wrong track’ polling numbers
… It turns out that “right or wrong track” isn’t a great predictor of presidential election outcomes. Candidates from the party that controls the White House have performed better when more Americans see the country heading on the right course. But that connection unravels when the incumbent president’s job approval […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Narrows, Wider Majority Expects Her to Win
Presidential preferences have narrowed in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll — but not expectations of the outcome. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters polled say they expect Hillary Clinton to win the election, essentially the same was it was in early September. … Results on vote fraud show how this […] Read more »
The State of Play With a Dozen Days to Go
Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to […] Read more »