Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range of possible Electoral College outcomes — including the chance of a Donald Trump victory, but also a Clinton landslide […] Read more »
Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House
Here are my best estimates. The Presidential and House races are a near-replica of 2012. Four Senate races are within one percentage point. Partisans in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. CONT. Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium Read more »
Senate Update: The Generic Ballot Is Hurting Democrats’ Chances
Our Senate forecasts — both polls-only and poll-plus — tipped toward Republicans late Monday, giving them about a 51 percent chance of maintaining their majority. While that technically makes the GOP a slight favorite, the fight for Senate control remains basically a coin flip. Still, our Senate forecasts have been […] Read more »
Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge
First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. […] Read more »
After a nearly two-year campaign — our final 2016 picks
… Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March. The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit […] Read more »
Election Update T-1: Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president
Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »