Most polls heading into the Nov. 8 presidential election predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. Two weeks before people lined up to vote, famed poll aggregator Nate Silver at the FiveThirtyEight website put her odds of winning at up to 85 percent. When he later gave Trump a 35 […] Read more »
Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa
We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White House. We thought that even if she lost Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, her Midwestern “firewall” of states that not only had voted for Barack Obama twice, but hadn’t voted for a Republican since the 1980s, would hold for […] Read more »
US pollsters’ failure to forecast Trump victory is a ‘massive, historical, epic disaster’
The British academic who led an official review into how pollsters failed to forecast the result of the 2015 general election said their’ failure to predict Donald Trump’s clear victory is a “massive disaster” for the polling industry which is “high up the Richter scale”. CONT. Christopher Hope, The Telegraph Read more »
Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night. Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims – dismissed and mocked by the experts – turned out to be true. “It’s going to put the polling industry out […] Read more »
Yes, the polls were wrong. Here’s why
The polls were wrong. And because we are obsessed with predicting opinions rather than listening to them, we didn’t see it coming. So, the world woke up believing that Republican candidate Donald Trump had a 15% chance of winning based on polling predictions – roughly the same chance of rolling […] Read more »
Final PollyVote forecast: Clinton will win
All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States. Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win is above […] Read more »