Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »
The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority
We’ve previously described the Democrats’ odds of winning a House majority in November as roughly 50-50, and that’s where we remain. Democrats benefit from the usual presidential party midterm drag, President Trump’s lackluster approval ratings, and a flood of candidates. Republicans benefit from the overall House map and the presence […] Read more »
Better poll sampling would have cast more doubt on the potential for Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 election
… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »
The Senate Battlegrounds to Watch
Just about everyone who follows politics closely knows that while there may well be a Democratic wave building, the Republican-friendly Senate map is an imposing bulwark that may protect the GOP against all but the biggest of tsunamis. … So which states offer the best chances for each party to […] Read more »
Democrats are in the catbird’s seat in the 2018 midterms
Congressional Democrats, benefiting from President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and historic trends working against the party in power, sit in the catbird seat in the battle for control, according to new House and Senate ratings from CNN. The House, in which Democrats need a 24-seat pickup to win the […] Read more »
Generic ballot measures, party candidate recruitment and the coming 2018 wave
With a series of survey results showing that Democrats have an enormous lead over Republicans in the 2018 election for control of the House of Representatives, it’s worth asking what these generic ballot items really mean, and how well they predict what’s actually going to happen in November. CONT. Dan […] Read more »