We’ve previously described the Democrats’ odds of winning a House majority in November as roughly 50-50, and that’s where we remain. Democrats benefit from the usual presidential party midterm drag, President Trump’s lackluster approval ratings, and a flood of candidates. Republicans benefit from the overall House map and the presence of some strong incumbents in marginal districts, even after some key retirements have weakened the front line of their defenses.
But if one believes the Democrats have a clear if challenging road to 218 (or more) seats in the House, as we do, one has to also construct a seat-by-seat path to how they might win that majority. That’s what we’re going to do today. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball