I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democratic advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval is up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the election […] Read more »
The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
… Republican hopes these days rest on two things. First, their deficit on the generic congressional ballot seems to have declined from 13 points in late December to about 5 points now, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. … The GOP’s second hope is that the economy will remain […] Read more »
Ratings Changes in 21 Districts
The first two months of 2018 have given both parties reasons for optimism. Republicans have cut Democrats’ lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic congressional ballot polls in half, from roughly 12 points in December to about six points today. As debates over unpopular health care and tax bills have […] Read more »
Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets
The victory by Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) in a special election in December did provide Democrats a potential path to a Senate majority, albeit a narrow one. The Democrats need to defend all 26 of the 34 seats they currently hold, and then flip two of the eight Republican-held seats. […] Read more »
Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which candidate is ahead at any given moment but also estimates their probability of winning the eventual election. These […] Read more »
Democrats, Republicans lead in their own strongholds: A key to midterm outcomes
The wide Democratic advantage in congressional vote preference comes entirely in districts the party already holds, raising questions about the extent of its possible gains in November. Yet the closeness of the contests in GOP-held districts underscores this year’s Republican vulnerability. CONT. Sofi Sinozich, ABC News Read more »