Democrats once again hold a wide advantage in a generic congressional matchup, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, backed by a base of supporters who are more enthusiastic than Republican partisans and more motivated by core issues. … The poll also suggests that the issues on which […] Read more »
Is Trump’s Uptick a Blip or a Trend?
Those of us who obsess about politics and midterm elections are laser-focused on two variables right now—the “stickability” of President Trump’s uptick in approval ratings since the beginning of the year, and the partial closure of the Democratic advantage in the national generic-ballot test. CONT. Charlie Cook Recent polls: Presidential […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What’s So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
Nancy Pelosi has been a key figure in Republican attack ads for years, and this year is no different. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates why she is the focus of so much negative attention from the right (and often the left, too). The crew also breaks down the findings […] Read more »
The 7 Governorships Republicans Could Pick Up This Year
Democrats have a great chance at picking up gubernatorial seats in November — but that doesn’t mean they won’t need to defend a few of their own. Last week, we showed why polls of governors races released so far should be taken with a grain of salt. This early in […] Read more »
A House forecast holds good news for Democrats
We’re far enough into the 2018 midterm election cycle that we have some sense of what the fundamentals of the political environment that will govern it look like. A pretty simple forecast model that relies on economic performance and presidential popularity predicts Democrats will pick up 45 to 50 House […] Read more »
Big Republican Advantages Are Eroding in the Race for House Control
The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has slipped over the last few weeks. But Republicans have gradually lost advantages of their own. Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election […] Read more »