Alone, no single retirement can do much to shift the national race for House control. But after a year full of them, it seems Republicans can’t afford too many more. Each new departure, including the retirement of House Speaker Paul Ryan, narrows the Republican path to retain the House. … […] Read more »
Rick Scott is the toughest challenger Bill Nelson has faced for Florida Senate, but Nelson’s still a slight favorite
The US Senate race in the key swing state of Florida just got a lot more exciting when Republican Gov. Rick Scott announced that he is running. Scott is not expected to face any major primary competition in his bid to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. … Scott has […] Read more »
Florida Senate: Scott Announcement Puts Race in Toss Up Column
In one of the most anticipated announcements of the cycle, Republican Gov. Rick Scott confirmed today that he will challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in November. Scott’s decision puts the contest into the Toss Up column. Very few candidates could wait until 211 days before an election to announce […] Read more »
How to Handicap the Race for the Senate
The toughest question for me this election cycle is which party, if either, will gain Senate seats. With the obvious caveat that things can change between now and Nov. 6, it’s reasonably clear that Republicans in the House are going to have a tough election. The question is whether it […] Read more »
April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts
The good news for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating has, on balance, ticked up from 38 percent to 40 percent since January as attention has shifted from unpopular GOP proposals on healthcare and taxes to the economy, tariffs and Stormy Daniels. Commensurately, Democrats’ lead on the question of […] Read more »
Mirror images of partisan vulnerability in Senate and gubernatorial races
With Mississippi now hosting two Senate races this year, 2018’s Senate and gubernatorial races have achieved something of a mirror-image symmetry. On the Senate front, Democrats are defending 26 seats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats from Maine and Vermont) while the Republicans, even with the addition of a […] Read more »