A majority of Americans think President Donald Trump will lose his re-election bid in 2020, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, similar numbers to those facing former President Barack Obama at this point in his first term ahead of his re-election victory. CONT. Ryan Struyk, CNN Read more »
Democrats may already be 35% of the way to a House majority
With the retirement announcement of Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Ryan Costello, there are now eight open seats currently held by Republicans in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. And there’s a good chance the Democrats will win them all, bringing the party 35% closer to the 23 seats it needs […] Read more »
To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory.
Democrats hope to ride a wave of liberal enthusiasm and anti-Trump sentiment to a House majority in the midterm elections in November. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, but only about 48 seats are considered competitive (rated tossup or leaning toward one party), based on an average of […] Read more »
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all
Where were you on the night of Nov. 8, 2016? If you’re like many political junkies, you were watching election night coverage and wondering not whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would win but might Clinton do so well that she’d win in places like Texas and Arizona. When she […] Read more »
A Creeping Sense of Doom for Republicans
In the wake of the GOP’s House special-election loss in Pennsylvania and amid President Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, it’s really hard to come up with good news for Republicans. In my meetings with GOP strategists, there is a sense of doom and resignation. On and off the Hill, Republicans are […] Read more »
Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats
Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November. Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already […] Read more »