Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas Lesko […] Read more »
Demographic shifts show 2020 presidential race could be close
President Donald Trump’s 2016 win upended much of the conventional wisdom about the U.S. electorate to cobble together a surprising victory. But how much of that remarkable 2016 movement is replicable in 2020, particularly with the demographic changes remaking the United States? A new bipartisan report runs through some of […] Read more »
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a […] Read more »
The Democrats’ lead in House polling is tightening. Here’s what it means
Everything seems to be going the Democrats’ way on their march for House control in November. Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, are retiring left and right. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. Nonpartisan handicappers, including CNN, continue to move more races in the Democrats’ direction. And yet, the […] Read more »
Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not. … It’s best to approach survey results with a dose of common sense. That may make those of us seeking complete objectivity a […] Read more »
Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril
One might have done better in predicting the 2016 presidential election, or at least in anticipating the very close eventual outcome, by basing a projection of the national popular vote on the findings of several political science models released prior to the election. These models, which were compiled by James […] Read more »