It might be hip to say that the “polls are broken” or the “polls are wrong,” but so far this cycle, it has not been true. There have been nine congressional (House and Senate) and governor elections with polling in 2017 and 2018, and the polling from them has been […] Read more »
In the Battle for the House, the 2016 Presidential Results Don’t Tell the Whole Tale
… In this piece, I hope to outline the couple of significant choices I’ve made in my House model that stand in contrast to other sites and election handicappers, and show a behind-the-curtain peek at some opportunities to improve the way we judge a race. CONT. Noah Rudnick, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »
Trump might be right — the GOP’s House majority is not all but doomed
Political prognosticators usually shake their head at President Donald Trump’s electoral analyses. He doesn’t tout all poll numbers, for example, and instead relies upon the rosiest figures from Rasmussen Reports. But when it comes to the 2018 House of Representatives elections, I think the President may have a point. According […] Read more »
Who’s On Second? CA Polling Is a Muddled Mess
Here’s what we know about the 2018 California races for governor and U.S. Senate: Democrats Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein will come in first in the June preliminary vote. If past polling and logic prove reliable, Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa and Kevin de Leon will come in second in those races […] Read more »
If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don’t They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?
Every day, it seems, another warning light goes off on the GOP’s dashboard, a blinking reminder of their ensuing troubles for 2018. There are a record number of GOP retirements — including that of House Speaker Ryan. Democratic challengers are outraising GOP incumbents. And, of course, there’s the most recent […] Read more »
What to Keep in Mind When Thinking About the Midterms
With less than 200 days until the midterm elections, Democrats are generally thought to have a slight advantage in the fight for control of the House. That doesn’t mean they are going to prevail. The polls could be wrong, as all should understand by now, and there’s more than enough […] Read more »