Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. Much else went as expected Tuesday night. Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden the Senate playing […] Read more »
The Blankenship ‘surge’ is why we should be wary of internal data and polls
Republicans escaped disaster in West Virginia on Tuesday when Don Blankenship finished third in the Senate primary. In fact, Blankenship ended up about 15 points behind winner Patrick Morrisey. That came as a surprise to some in the media and no doubt to some consumer of news who heard reports […] Read more »
President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too.
… For the past 66 days, Trump’s approval rating has been somewhere between 40.0 percent and 42.1 percent, according to our tracker. It’s been toward the higher end of that range recently — but that isn’t much of range. Indeed, over the whole course of his presidency, the range Trump’s […] Read more »
Can Donald Trump continue to defy political gravity?
The political future of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party over the next two years really comes down to one question: Do traditional measures of popularity mean anything when it comes to Trump? If they do, the Republican Party and Trump could be in major trouble. CONT. Harry Enten, […] Read more »
GOP Senate Targets Fade From View
When this election cycle began, handicappers repeatedly pointed out that 10 Democratic Senate incumbents from states carried by Donald Trump would be on the ballot in 2018. That count was accurate, and the point behind it obvious — Republicans had a long list of opportunities. But now even the most […] Read more »
Have Special Elections Warped Our Sense of the Midterms?
The Republican Debbie Lesko’s shockingly close margin of victory in a recent special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District — she won by five percentage points where Donald Trump won by over 20 — again raises the prospect of a blue wave in the midterms. It is true that Republicans […] Read more »