The Republican Debbie Lesko’s shockingly close margin of victory in a recent special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District — she won by five percentage points where Donald Trump won by over 20 — again raises the prospect of a blue wave in the midterms. It is true that Republicans have performed abysmally in special elections during the Trump presidency, not only losing a host of previously safe seats but also winning the rest with sharply reduced margins like Ms. Lesko’s. If these results truly depict the state of the electorate, Republicans could be looking at a historically large wipeout.
But special elections differ from the midterms in two important respects. CONT.
Henry Olsen, New York Times