It’s the thick of primary season, and the looming question that hangs over the 2018 midterms is — will Democrats take control of Congress? NPR has reported on elements of potential answers to that question and shown some reasons for Republicans to find shelter — from the record number of […] Read more »
Can we still trust polls?
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as the UK’s decision to leave the European Union through “Brexit,” rattled public confidence in polls. Since these two major world events occurred, we have been asked the same question when giving presentations, on social media, in interviews, and […] Read more »
Glimmers of Hope for the GOP
With the midterm elections less than six months away, the question seems to be whether we are at a new transition point. Last fall, when Election Day was a year out, President Trump’s job-approval-rating averages seemed mired in the high 30s, with Republicans behind on the generic congressional ballot test […] Read more »
The presidential approval rating that really matters for the midterm elections
President Donald Trump scored a 41% approval rating compared with a 53% disapproval rating, among all Americans in CNN’s latest poll. That -12 point net approval rating gives us a fairly good idea of what most Americans think of the job Trump is doing. And it’s not good. But for […] Read more »
Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats
Yes, it’s time for another of my “dangerous dozen open House seats” columns, which I have been writing since shortly after the establishment of the Jamestown Settlement (or so it seems). … Here is my list, in descending order of vulnerability. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
The Very Stable House Generic Ballot
The House generic ballot, a national polling question that gauges voter intentions in the House vote, often fluctuates a lot from poll to poll. For instance, a poll that is highly rated by FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, Monmouth University, fluctuated from a 15-point Democratic lead in December 2017 to a two-point […] Read more »