Calling balls and strikes is difficult when you’re partially blind. That’s the situation Senate prognosticators are in when it comes to this year’s races. In the early going, there just isn’t a lot of good polling data out there to understand the playing field. Democrats need a net gain of […] Read more »
Has the political climate improved, marginally, for Republicans?
It’s too early for a genuine gut check about what the midterm elections might produce in November in terms of control of Congress. Nonetheless, political strategists are debating whether there has been a recent change in the political environment that could ease fears among Republicans that a big blue wave […] Read more »
Democrats’ Midterm Margin for Error Is Shrinking
It’s still true that Democrats are far more likely than not to capture a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but their margin for error may be less than it was six months or even one month ago. The micro-political, race-by-race picture has improved […] Read more »
What Do We Know With Just Under Six Months to Go
Given the warped time-space continuum in which those of us in DC live – a flood of news, tweets, and leaks makes each day feel like a week – it may be hard to comprehend ‘real’ time. So, let me help out. We are less than six months – 173 […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Drive for 25 in the House: An Update
In early February, we sketched out a potential path to a Democratic House majority. We called it the “Drive for 25,” in reference to the Democrats’ branding of their unsuccessful attempt to win the House in 2012. Three and a half months later, we thought we’d revisit this possible Democratic […] Read more »
The Numbers Say Dems Still Have an Edge—But Not a Huge One
In both life and politics, things aren’t always quite as straightforward and tidy as we would like. There can be a general agreement on the direction something is headed, but not necessarily on the degree. A month ago this column looked at dueling high-quality polls—one for ABC News and The […] Read more »