Everything seems to be going the Democrats’ way on their march for House control in November. Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, are retiring left and right. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. Nonpartisan handicappers, including CNN, continue to move more races in the Democrats’ direction.
And yet, the Democrats’ position on the generic congressional ballot seems to have worsened since the beginning of the year. Just this month, four “gold standard” pollsters (i.e., live interview surveys that call cell-phones and are transparent about their data) show an average lead for the Democrats of just five percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. That’s down considerably from 14 points in December among gold standard polls.
So what is going on, and should Democrats be worried? CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN
Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot