… In 2016, one of the problems in state polls was that Trump voters turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. In 2017, one of the problems with the polls in Virginia was that Democrats turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. Those Democrats elected not only Northam […] Read more »
Final picks for 2018: Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets
… Our expectations for this election have been consistent for the past several months. We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships. Our picks follow. We’ve also included an “upset watch” listing in […] Read more »
Two Vastly Different Election Outcomes That Hinge on a Few Dozen Close Contests
Democrats appear poised to win the House popular vote on Tuesday by a wide margin, with national polls showing sustained disapproval of President Trump — and yet the fate of the chamber is not a foregone conclusion. On the day before the midterm elections, two vastly different outcomes remain easy […] Read more »
Three early races to watch on election night
Election Day is Tuesday, but with late votes and close races we might not know which party controls the House and Senate until the wee hours of the next day — or after. If you are watching closely, however, you can probably get a good idea of the way things […] Read more »
Election Fundamentals in 2018
The modelers at FiveThirtyEight have made a compelling case that we should expect Republicans to pick up a seat or two in the upcoming U.S. Senate election. The purpose of this post is to show that this is essentially the same prediction we would have made two years ago, once […] Read more »
House Democrats in position to gain but still face hurdles — CBS News poll
It may not be easy for Democrats to take the House majority, as they have to win a string of districts in Republican territory and get strong turnout, but they head into Tuesday in position to do so — even if narrowly. CBS News ran three scenarios. Scenario one is […] Read more »