The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday’s midterm election. Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Old cries of “don’t believe the polls” became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls “fake” […] Read more »
What If The Polls Are Wrong Again? 4 Scenarios For What Might Happen In The Elections
There’s a lot that can happen Tuesday, the culmination of a long midterm election campaign that will provide the first nationwide measure of the U.S. electorate since Donald Trump was elected president. One narrative has become dominant: that Democrats are likely to gain control of the House and Republicans hold […] Read more »
A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election
On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of vulnerable Republican […] Read more »
Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites
This is a difficult article to write. Not for any deeply personal reason, but just because I’m not quite sure what I’m supposed to lead with — the most likely outcome or the uncertainty around that outcome. Either way, there’s the potential for misunderstanding. People can mentally “round up” high […] Read more »
A spate of House polls reinforces good news for the Democratic Party
As the midterm elections approached, the New York Times undertook an interesting experiment: It would conduct polling in dozens of House districts, showing users the results in real time. Partnering with Siena College’s polling team, the idea was that users would gain a better understanding of how poll results are […] Read more »
Final House Ratings: 75 Competitive Races, Ten Rating Changes
With Election Day finally upon us, the House battlefield is wider and more lopsided than at any time since 2010, when Republicans won their current majority. We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A “Red Exodus” is contributing to the potential […] Read more »