… In 2016, one of the problems in state polls was that Trump voters turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. In 2017, one of the problems with the polls in Virginia was that Democrats turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. Those Democrats elected not only Northam but a slew of Democrats at the state level, dramatically shifting Virginia politics to the left.
There’s been a lot of focus on those inaccurate 2016 polls over the past few weeks, in part thanks to Trump and his supporters reminding Americans that he and his party had been underestimated before. All of these projections about how the Republicans were going to lose the House? Well, remember when pollsters said that Trump was going to lose Michigan?
Those results from Virginia offer the opposite lesson. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post