As I wrote earlier this week, Democrats almost certainly need a systematic polling error to win the Senate. By that I mean: They need for the polls to be off everywhere, or at least in certain key clusters of states, to win the Senate. … What might be more surprising […] Read more »
Sorry, pundits, but you have no clue what will happen on Tuesday
… Polls remain our best tool for reading the electorate and discerning important trends, which is why journalists, handicappers, and campaign managers depend on them so much. Entire media companies are devoted to explaining them. But polls are not predictive. They are wobbly around the margins. Pollsters, the honest ones […] Read more »
Senate: Four More Days! Four More Days! Four More Days!
The waning days of any election cycle are always the hardest as there is little more left for the political world to do but speculate and traffic in gossip. Nearly every conversation begins with, “So I heard …”. This cycle has been no exception, but the final days have been […] Read more »
Why We’re Headed for Huge Turnout
A week before the midterm elections, both parties are filled with anxiety. Like football wide receivers who have been blind-sided one time too many, many Democrats are hearing real or imaginary footsteps—residual trauma from the 2016 election, when they thought things were going so well until they didn’t. Similarly mindful […] Read more »
Democrats Can Get Close To A House Majority With Suburban Seats Alone
This entire election cycle we’ve heard (and even written) that the Democrats’ path to a House majority may lie in the suburbs. Although that summary is a bit simplistic because of the breadth of the House battlefield, an analysis of a recent article from CityLab and FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast suggest […] Read more »
Final Week Fundamentals
The last week of a campaign is the longest week. Most of the polls have been completed. The final ads have been placed. The last lawn signs have been put into the ground (or pulled out by mischievous opponents). Cable TV is filled with inane chatter. And, the campaigns and […] Read more »