President Trump And America’s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework

Trump 2020 Is A Stronger Candidate Than Trump 2016: Looking purely at Trump’s personal standing in 2016 vs. 2020, he is no worse for wear, with the greatest change in his ratings coming from the consolidation of support among Republicans after two years of providing wins for his GOP base […] Read more »

Everyone is underestimating Trump. It could hurt Democrats and Republicans alike.

… The conventional wisdom on Trump’s reelection odds are much too bearish. Trump has a better chance of winning again than many pundits seem to think. And both Democrats and Republicans need to take Trump seriously and recalibrate their decision process or risk facing serious consequences. … Emory University professor […] Read more »

Why the Senate Is the Big 2020 Story

Just about everyone interested in American politics these days is focused on what Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to do in the coming weeks, along with the unfolding presidential contest. To the extent there is any remaining political bandwidth, it’s mostly on the U.S. House, where Republicans would need […] Read more »