More Americans say the economy is in good shape than at any point since 2001. Yet President Donald Trump’s approval rating has remained steady over the last two years. An average of all polls shows his approval rating among voters is currently 43%. A year ago, it was 42%. Two […] Read more »
Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts
When Americans peer 30 years into the future, they see a country in decline economically, politically and on the world stage. While a narrow majority of the public (56%) say they are at least somewhat optimistic about America’s future, hope gives way to doubt when the focus turns to specific […] Read more »
Filling Out the 2020 Dem Bracket
… There are a lot of ways to frame an early look at a presidential nomination contest. One comparison is the NCAA basketball tournament: The objective is to make it into the Final Four next March and then hope for the best. At this point, we are roughly at the […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition
If you’re a longtime reader of FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that the early stage of the presidential primary process is a tricky one for us to cover. It’s tempting to put a lot of emphasis on shiny objects with numbers attached — polls, endorsement counts, fundraising totals — especially given our […] Read more »
What Early 2020 Ratings Can And Can’t Tell Us
You could be forgiven for thinking that the 2020 election has gotten started way too soon. Presidential aspirants are announcing their candidacies abnormally early in the cycle, and election handicappers like our friends at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report have already offered their first race […] Read more »
The Democratic primary: How much does being an early frontrunner matter?
The 2020 race for the Democratic nomination has already begun, and we’re already seeing some early polling results. But how much do standings among primary voters this early matter? A look back at past CBS News polling shows that since 2004, being an early frontrunner hasn’t always led to the […] Read more »