With an approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s — and, perhaps more importantly, a disapproval rating consistently over 50% — it would be easy to say that President Trump is an underdog for reelection. The president won only narrowly in 2016 and did so while losing the national popular vote, […] Read more »
Nobody Knows Who Will Be the 2020 Presidential Nominees
Peter D. Hart, the respected Democratic pollster who has perfected his trade through his work in the past 15 presidential campaigns, candidly warns against the predictive value of polls taken this far ahead of any presidential election. At this stage, so long before voters actually vote, according to Hart, poll […] Read more »
Initial 2020 House race ratings are here
After losing a net of 40 House seats in last year’s midterms, Republicans have plenty of offensive opportunities in 2020. But winning back the majority will not be easy. On paper, the path back to 218 may look simple for Team GOP because it winds through favorable territory. There are […] Read more »
Living with Uncertainty
Given the problems with polls, do they accurately predict elections? The answer is they usually do. Their assumptions need to be more or less correct and their samples inclusive, which is harder than it has been in the past. Nobel Prize winning physicist Richard Feynman said, “It is scientific only […] Read more »
Biden’s polling lead shaky ahead of 2020 decision
Joe Biden’s big lead in early Democratic 2020 polling might be a bunch of malarkey. While most polls show the former vice president hovering around 30 percent of the Democratic primary vote, well ahead of second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders, two recent surveys paint a starkly different picture — raising the […] Read more »
Why Trump Will Lose in 2020
With several major Democratic primary candidates having declared, the palace intrigue of America’s 2020 presidential election is already in nearly full swing. But what if I were to tell you that barring a significant unforeseen shock to the system, the outcome of 2020 is already set in stone? The high […] Read more »