… As we assess the House playing field for the first time, we think Democrats start as favorites to hold the House majority. There are a lot of little reasons that go into this assessment, but there’s one major one that really undergirds that analysis. Here’s goes: Even if President […] Read more »
Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden
Last week, we introduced a method for evaluating Democratic presidential contenders, which focused on their ability to build a coalition among key constituencies within the party. … In this article, I’ll go through a set of 10 leading contenders and map out their potential winning coalitions; we’ll tackle some of […] Read more »
Introducing The Cook Political Report’s 2020 Electoral College Ratings
Here it is. Our first pass at the 2020 Electoral College ratings. These ratings take into consideration the 2016 and 2018 results as well as what we’ve learned about the political coalitions that currently make-up the Trump and Democratic bases. Obviously, what we don’t know — the political and economic […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Too Soon? An assessment of early 2020 presidential election polls
A new Congress has just been sworn in, and we’re already talking about 2020. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we share the pros and cons of early presidential election polls. Is it too soon? We have our views. And the outlook for 2019… Many Americans are optimistic about […] Read more »
An initial rating of the 2020 presidential race
I didn’t expect Donald Trump to win in 2016, and after his election I wrote an entire column in The Washington Post examining my analysis and mistakes. Now older, hopefully a little wiser, and definitely more cautious, I turn to the 2020 presidential contest, which has already started. My initial […] Read more »
Americans Have Higher Hopes for Prosperity Than Peace in 2019
Americans are generally optimistic about the nation’s employment levels and stock market performance in 2019, even as most are pessimistic about the prospects for political cooperation and world peace. The public is also more negative than positive about the direction of the U.S. crime rate but evenly split in its […] Read more »