… The conventional wisdom on Trump’s reelection odds are much too bearish. Trump has a better chance of winning again than many pundits seem to think. And both Democrats and Republicans need to take Trump seriously and recalibrate their decision process or risk facing serious consequences. …
Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz put together a simple statistical model that uses economic growth, the president’s approval rating and whether the president’s party has held the White House for one term or more to predict the results of presidential elections. The basic logic of the model is simple. A solid economy (which Trump has) and high approval ratings (which he doesn’t) are good signs for a president’s reelection chances. If you feed the model current economic and poll numbers (which obviously can change by the time we get to Election Day) the results suggest that Trump would get about 51.4 percent of the two-party presidential vote. CONT.
David Byler, Washington Post