We’re not exactly sure when the awkward word “electability” really entered the national lexicon, but the concept — voters and party bigwigs making a pre-election assessment about who is likeliest to win — is surely as old as democracy itself. CONT. Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
Let’s hope it’s not just the economy
Last week, one of my very smart, and very distinguished, colleagues told The Washington Post in no uncertain terms that the 2020 “election is going to be about the economy.” Unless something changes dramatically, Democrats better hope my friend is wrong, because that’s an election we will likely lose. … […] Read more »
Math favors Senate Democrats in 2020, but geography gives GOP the advantage
A sprawling field of Democratic presidential candidates have spent months proffering ambitious policy proposals — from universal health care to an expanded Supreme Court — while debating whether they would eliminate the Senate filibuster to implement them with a simple majority vote. But there’s a catch: There’s a good chance […] Read more »
The case for and against Joe Biden’s 2020 chances
Former Vice President Joe Biden officially jumped into the 2020 presidential race on Thursday — and his candidacy is perhaps the most analytically perplexing of any of the Democrats. He’s probably got the best chance of any Democrat running to win the nomination, but the other candidates combined have a […] Read more »
We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive.
Over the past few weeks, FiveThirtyEight has explored who led in early primary polls of presidential cycles from 1972 to 2016 and who went on to win the nomination. And what we’ve seen is that national surveys conducted in the year before a presidential primary are relatively good indicators of […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite
If there’s one thing the Democratic establishment is good at, it’s panicking. And the latest reason for panic among Democratic insiders is Bernie Sanders. According to a New York Times article from earlier this month, the prospect of a Sanders nomination is “spooking establishment-aligned Democrats, some of whom are worried […] Read more »