… Whenever I use the NCAA basketball tournament’s bracket as an analogy for the Democratic presidential nomination, I can count on one friend who is extremely knowledgeable about Democratic politics to shake his head and rightly argue that voters cannot be conveniently sorted into tidy boxes—demographic, ideological, or cultural. … […] Read more »
Notes on the State of the House
Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at […] Read more »
A populist revolt?
… Sixty percent say the country’s economic system mainly benefits those in power. At first blush, that seems like strong support for suggesting a potential populist revolt. But is it? How would we know? Is 60 percent a large number responding this way or a small number; something typical or […] Read more »
Many Democrats are misreading 2016 to assume that Biden is their best chance in 2020
In the past two weeks, there’s been a divergence in the Democratic presidential primary field. Former vice president Joe Biden has surged in recent polling while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has seen his support slacken. … Why? What is spurring Biden’s surge? One key factor appears to be the perception […] Read more »
2020 polls lay out an ominous pattern for Trump
It’s way too early to know who is going to win the 2020 presidential race. We don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, and we don’t know what President Donald Trump’s approval rating will be. Still, we can look for patterns in the early polling to see what is […] Read more »
The Economy and the Election
For as long as I’ve covered politics, the conventional wisdom has been that presidents win re-election in good economic times and they lose when the economy stinks. Ronald Reagan won re-election when the economy was booming. Jimmy Carter lost when we sunk into economic “malaise.” But, we also know that […] Read more »