A new Glengariff Group poll from the state of Michigan shows that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2020 matchup by 53% to 41%. … The 2020 election is a long way off. We don’t know what Trump will do over the next 17 […] Read more »
When It Comes to the Senate, the Democrats Have Their Work Cut Out for Them
For Democrats to overcome the Republican advantage in the struggle for control of the Senate, they will need a massive turnout effort and a wave election even more powerful than the one that won them the House in 2018. … Political polarization and the partisan division that comes with it […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President’s reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative. The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump […] Read more »
Trump can win — again
As I’ve argued before, Donald Trump can be beaten in 2020. “Can” and “will” are two very different things, however. While I’m not a lawyer, I can argue both sides of the case — that Trump will be victorious and that he’ll lose. Democrats would be foolish to merely assume […] Read more »
House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries
… Since the end of World War II, there have been 37 elections for the U.S. House (one every two years). In those 37 elections, an average of 397 House incumbents sought reelection each election year. On average, only six House members failed to secure renomination each election year. In […] Read more »
Here’s the next political truism that Trump might overturn
The 2020 election may test as never before one of the most enduring rules of presidential politics, the straightforward four-word maxim coined by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Even amid record-low unemployment, robust economic growth and a roaring stock market, President Donald Trump has shown […] Read more »