… Since the end of World War II, there have been 37 elections for the U.S. House (one every two years). In those 37 elections, an average of 397 House incumbents sought reelection each election year. On average, only six House members failed to secure renomination each election year. In other words, more than 98% of all House members who have sought renomination in the post-World War II era have received it. …
This 98% renomination figure may actually understate the safety of incumbents in primaries, at least in this election. The reason is that 2020 is not a national redistricting cycle. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball