For Democrats to overcome the Republican advantage in the struggle for control of the Senate, they will need a massive turnout effort and a wave election even more powerful than the one that won them the House in 2018. …
Political polarization and the partisan division that comes with it has become nationalized. More states — 23 by my count — are now various shades of red compared with 20 that are blue. Three factors have been crucial to this polarization and nationalization: race, cultural conflict and more recently, opposition to immigration. In no small measure, it is the fact that Trump ran the most racially divisive campaign in modern history that led to this development.
Polarization is currently “intense enough to predetermine most of the seats by party affiliation,” Larry Sabato, editor in chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball — a political analysis and handicapping newsletter — wrote in response to my inquiry.
In practical terms, this means Republicans are favored in red states that have 46 Senate seats, while Democrats are favored in blue states that have 40. CONT.
Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times