Polls are meant to gauge the pulse of the American people. Relevant, timely polls on current events help provide a snapshot in time — and may make news. Others, particularly those attempting to look months into the future, are less legitimate news and more insignificant conversation pieces. So, when news […] Read more »
Senate: Taking Baby Steps
Comparatively speaking, Senate races have gotten off to a glacial start this cycle. In recent cycles, a number of first-tier candidates had announced in the first quarter of the off year, largely setting the table of competitive races early. This cycle, it may be clear where the most competitive races […] Read more »
Senate 2020: The Primary Challengers
Key Points• The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House.• However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate […] Read more »
Decades of Iowa polling shows there’s no runaway Democratic favorite right now
So just how much is a poll lead for the Iowa caucuses really worth at this point? That’s the big question after the latest CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was released this weekend. For those that weren’t deeply in the polling weeds, former Vice President Joe Biden led the field at […] Read more »
The 2020 Race: Still tilting Democratic
There has been plenty of attention recently on economic models that show President Donald Trump holding a huge advantage in the 2020 presidential contest. But it’s not that simple. … No matter how many economists, political scientists or investment bankers are involved, predictive models based solely on economic data miss […] Read more »
The most unpopular presidential election winner ever could win again in 2020
Liberty Vittert, Washington University in St Louis and Brendan Lind, Harvard Business School Donald Trump is the first president to ever be elected while being actively disliked by the majority of Americans. Trump was also the first person elected president who was significantly less popular than his counterpart. Most Americans […] Read more »