Key Points
• The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House.
• However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate primary loser.
• A few senators appear to face challenges that could threaten them.
• Primary upsets could change the general election odds in some key races. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball