No one knows with any real certainty who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. One decent bet to make is that former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are the most likely candidates to hold onto to a firm base of support as we head into […] Read more »
Four Scenarios: Republicans’ Best Endgame and Democrats’ Possible Sweep
As of Thanksgiving, there is no projection that is credibly predicting Republicans will win back the House by gaining a net of 17 seats to deny Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats a majority. But, there are a host of analysts suggesting that Trump could win re-election with less than six […] Read more »
Approval ratings and vote shares
A few weeks ago, Greg Koger examined Donald Trump’s approval rating by state and foresaw a difficult reelection effort for the President. Trump, Greg noted, had negative net approval in 30 states, and he didn’t have an easy path for even getting back to his slender victory margins in 2016. […] Read more »
Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020
Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence. Donald J. Trump had swept most of the Midwest to […] Read more »
How Michael Bloomberg’s Late Bid For The Democratic Nomination Could Go
… As I wrote two weeks ago, when we first learned Bloomberg was (re)considering a campaign, he is jumping into a race that has no room for him. … And as I wrote one week ago, Bloomberg’s polling numbers have been uninspiring since pollsters started adding him to their 2020 […] Read more »
Who’s most electable? Don’t trust polls that match Democratic candidates against Trump.
With another Democratic debate behind us and with the Iowa primary caucuses inching closer, Democrats are continuing to debate the candidates’ electability — and who has the best shot at beating President Trump. Much of this debate focuses on polls that ask Americans how they would vote if the president […] Read more »