Who’s most electable? Don’t trust polls that match Democratic candidates against Trump.

With another Democratic debate behind us and with the Iowa primary caucuses inching closer, Democrats are continuing to debate the candidates’ electability — and who has the best shot at beating President Trump.

Much of this debate focuses on polls that ask Americans how they would vote if the president were facing off against different opponents. Democrats who perform best against Trump are assumed to be more electable.

There’s just one problem: Those polls are likely to be exaggerating any differences in electability among the candidates.

To show this, I draw on data from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape — a weekly survey of more than 6,000 Americans. CONT.