As the 2020 election pushes ahead, voters will be seeing poll results in their news feed — lots of them. But not all polls are created equal, and it can be hard to put the results into the proper context. PolitiFact participated in a workshop hosted by the Poynter Institute […] Read more »
In Close Runoff, Democrats Try to Finish Strong in Louisiana
Key Points • In advance of Saturday’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana, the data point to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) as a small favorite. • We’re moving our rating there from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, but even if Edwards holds on, it may not be by much. • In […] Read more »
The picture in Iowa just got muddier, not clearer
For all of the legitimate (and occasionally overblown) hand-wringing about “horse race” coverage of national politics, it is a lamentable fact that horse racing generally offers a good analogy for polling. … On Tuesday afternoon, Monmouth University gave us a new snapshot of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination […] Read more »
Moneyball, meet politics: Could VAR settle arguments about candidate strength?
In the era of data and metrics and models in political analysis, at least one question still remains: How do we quantify the strength of individual candidates? Arguing over whether a candidate or incumbent is good or bad is an age-old tradition in the political media and among party operatives. […] Read more »
The electability difference between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden
… As I pointed out in July, there is a slew of evidence that more moderate candidates have done better than those closer to ideological poles in House elections over the last decade. Now, the difference isn’t so great as to make Warren unelectable, and there are other factors at […] Read more »
Sorry, Wisconsin, the Presidential Election Could be a Blowout
Since November 9, 2016, Democrats and pundits have contemplated the path back to Presidential victory in 2020: is it winning back white “working class” voters in the upper Midwestern states of Wisconsin & Michigan, or is it a candidate & platform that people of color actually want to vote for? […] Read more »