It seemed in many ways like nothing new: another high-ranking Republican official offering a dubious assertion about the potent political powers of President Trump. But a claim from the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel — that Mr. Trump helped lift Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky from a […] Read more »
A Poll Symphony or Cacophony?
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, our crackerjack team of experts assesses the latest national and state Democratic primary polls. What do they mean in this stage of the race? And, the proportions may have changed, but the Democratic National Committee continues to use public opinion polls as a […] Read more »
Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map
Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »
One year until the most important election in American history
… Our friends at Moody’s Analytics have once again produced a presidential election model to tell us who is going to win the White House next year. Like virtually all nonpartisan professional handicappers (including myself), Moody’s predicted days before the 2016 election that Hillary Clinton would win comfortably. Moody’s economists […] Read more »
Poking Holes in the Conventional Wisdom
Quite often when a conventional wisdom takes hold, it is often an overly simplistic way of looking at things. But there is a value for people in and around politics to have a set of solid assumptions, then build a theory from it, then watch like a hawk for any […] Read more »
A year out, here’s four scenarios for 2020 elections
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, there’s a saturating fear of projecting elections. Nearly three years into his presidency, and with one year left in his first term, there are multiple potential outcomes for the 2020 elections. But the scenarios aren’t created equal and don’t have the same chance […] Read more »