About two weeks before Election Day 2016, the New York Times tweeted its most recent forecast for the outcome of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton had a 93 percent chance of winning, the forecast suggested, leaving Donald Trump a less than 1-in-10 chance of success. … That election was certainly […] Read more »
Do today’s polls show who will win the Dem nomination?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling at this point in previous election cycles could tell us about the 2020 election. This Week, ABC News Read more »
5 Takeaways From the Latest Iowa Poll
Senator Elizabeth Warren is starting to stand out in Iowa, as Friday’s New York Times/Siena College poll shows. But she isn’t standing alone — at least not yet. With the candidacy of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. cooling off, the race now looks more interesting than at any […] Read more »
Iowa is anyone’s game in a historically messy field
… Mess is the only word I’d use to describe the current state of affairs in Iowa. There is no clear front-runner, and the closer we get to the caucuses, the hazier the crystal ball seems to be getting. With three months to go until Iowa, any of the top […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s Un-Dead Campaign?
This week, we discuss the latest New Hampshire poll that has Joe Biden coming in 3rd place. Then we discuss the overall health of the Biden campaign, amid reports it may be struggling. And finally, we look at a few key elections taking place Tuesday on the state level in […] Read more »
Election 2019 Mega-Preview: Political Conformity Seeks Further Confirmation
As Americans head to the polls next week, there are three major prizes at stake. Republicans currently control all three of these prizes: the governorships in Kentucky and Mississippi and majority control of the Virginia General Assembly, composed of the state House of Delegates and the state Senate. In an […] Read more »