… While the 2020 election is still more than a year off, Republicans ought to be concerned about some early signs, both at the national and state levels. Trump carried self-described independents in 2016, 46 percent to 42 percent, according to that year’s national exit polls, but the GOP lost […] Read more »
Yes, late-breaking and undecided voters do exist — and matter
In today’s highly polarized political times, you might think that undecided, late-breaking voters are an extinct species — akin to the passenger pigeon and the Dodo bird. But ahead of this November’s gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, the Democratic Governors Association believes they certainly exist. And the organization […] Read more »
Canada’s pollsters nailed the outcome of the federal election – mostly
Politicians and pundits love nothing more than to say the polls can’t be trusted. After all, the numbers frequently get in the way of talking points or convenient narratives. But in the 2019 federal election, the polls did pretty well — and where they didn’t, they offer clues about what […] Read more »
Can Warren Beat Trump?
Chat with almost any political professional in and around Washington, and you find something of a consensus building on the following: 1. Elizabeth Warren is going to be the nominee.2. She’s going to have a hard time beating Trump. Last week, I spent time looking at the first point. Today, […] Read more »
Who’s the most electable Democrat? It might be Warren or Buttigieg, not Biden.
The biggest issue in the Democratic presidential primary isn’t health care or immigration or gun control. It’s electability. A strong majority of Democratic voters report that it’s more important that the party nominate a candidate who can beat President Trump than someone they agree with on the issues. … So […] Read more »
A strange bellwether: Pennsylvania’s House
The five competitive 2020 House races in Pennsylvania read like an abridged version of the national House race. They include the suburban battlegrounds, the exurban battlegrounds, a Romney-Clinton districts, an Obama-Trump district, a Republican in a seat that Clinton carried and a Democrat in a seat Trump carried. The results […] Read more »