This week, we recap the latest CNN/NYT Democratic primary debate, discuss if Ohio is still a bellwether state, and take a look at the LGBTQ community’s growing influence within the American electorate. The Forecast Fest, CNN Read more »
This election model says 2020 is ‘Trump’s to lose’
Donald Trump: Two-term president? While that prospect may seem distant amid an endless series of terrible headlines — Syria! Ukraine! Impeachment! — for the President of late, a trio of new electoral models from Moody’s Analytics all predict a victory for the incumbent in 2020. “Results from each of the […] Read more »
A More Decisive Electorate May Be Making Early Polls Better
With the 2020 election approaching, each week brings a new set of presidential poll results. As perennial as the election cycle itself, the arrival of early data is accompanied by analysts and forecasters wrestling with its value. In particular we wonder how much early polling can tell us about the […] Read more »
Has Elizabeth Warren broken the electability ceiling?
One of the early truisms of the 2020 Democratic nominating contest was that Democrats wanted nothing more than to beat President Trump. There’s typically a connection between overall support in a primary and the perception that a candidate has the best chance of winning in the general election, but this […] Read more »
Louisiana Governor: Key Takeaways from the Primary Election
The recent race in Louisiana may not be a bellwether, but it’s more evidence of the growing geographic divide in the country. … The big takeaway from Saturday’s results is that the urban/rural divide that expanded in the 2016 Presidential election is continuing for downballot elections. CONT. Ryan Matsumoto, Inside […] Read more »
Why it’s Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and then everybody else
… Right now, there’s little doubt that Biden and Warren are the top tier in the Democratic primary fight. With the exception of Sanders, no one is even close to Biden and Warren nationally. The question now is how likely are we to be looking at the potential nominee when […] Read more »