… Presidential nominees leading throughout the primary campaign has been the exception, not the rule, for Democratic candidates over the past six decades. This has been the case for a variety of reasons — including because some eventual nominees didn’t enter the race until late in the campaign or because […] Read more »
The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment
A major overall theme in American political life is the nationalization of politics. How people feel about the president is bleeding down the ballot to an extreme degree, to the point where congressional expert Gary Jacobson observed that the 2018 midterm was “the most sweeping national referendum on any administration […] Read more »
Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California
For most of us, America’s Finest City, San Diego, is known for its agreeable climate, world-famous zoo, and picturesque parks. Travel a few miles east, however, and political junkies will find a game of congressional musical chairs developing. CONT. J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
How House elections will expand the 2020 Electoral College map
The results of the 2020 House and Senate races will largely determine the efficacy of the next president. Losing either chamber to the other party would hamstring a president’s agenda — allowing the opposition to obstruct legislation, effectively negotiate the budget, and in the case of the Senate, stall executive […] Read more »
Why comparing Trump’s approval with past presidents doesn’t tell us much about 2020
Earlier this week, President Trump announced proudly to the world (via Twitter, of course) that his approval rating had hit 53 percent. If that number surprises you, it should. It’s from a notoriously Trump-friendly pollster that only reflects people it determines are “likely voters” — and which currently shows only […] Read more »
The Risks of Impeachment for House Democrats
There’s an awful lot we don’t know yet: how public opinion will respond to the declassified whistleblower report, how many months an impeachment inquiry could take, what other wrongdoing it could reveal, and whether Dems will ultimately have 218 votes to pass articles of impeachment (at 235 seats, they can […] Read more »