Democratic voters are stuck in a self-destructive loop. The loop begins and ends with polls. Pollsters know that Democrats want to know who is the strongest candidate against President Donald Trump, so they conduct a lot of head-to-head polls matching Trump up against various contenders. The polls show that the […] Read more »
Forecasting the House: Projections based on the presidential popular vote
This post is going to complete the series forecasting who will control of the House in 2020 based on the national environment, which is best measured by the presidential popular vote. CONT. Seth Moskowitz, Every Second Year Read more »
The 99 House Districts That Will Determine Dems’ Fate
There’s a lot on the line in 2020, but 99 seats now held by House Democrats will likely determine who occupies the White House, sits in the Senate Majority Leader’s office, and holds the gavel in the House of Representatives’ chamber. Some are nail-biter swing districts, and some are cakewalks […] Read more »
Bashful base: Pollsters say Trump closer to Dems than early 2020 surveys suggest
Professional pollsters say President Donald Trump and senior White House officials are rightly confident heading into his reelection bid because early 2020 surveys are likely flawed. … “I think the president’s support is undervalued,” said Neil Newhouse, the leading pollster for Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential bid. “If you separate […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Expanding the Map
Key Points• We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.• While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up […] Read more »
All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senate
This column argued six months ago that to the extent the focus of the political world wasn’t trained on the presidential election, it was on whether Democrats would retain their newly won House majority. It then argued that the Senate would eventually become the biggest non-presidential story—and that appears to […] Read more »