… Polls probably do influence how people vote in some situations, experts say. But it’s not anything like a universal, definitive effect. What’s more, some of them told me they aren’t sure that would be a bad thing. The question isn’t just whether polls determine outcomes, it’s also a debate […] Read more »
Impeachment’s Limited Political Impact on 2020
We live in a political era of incredible volatility and mind-numbing predictability. For only the third time in American history, a president is about to be impeached. Even so, Americans aren’t particularly captivated by a story in which they already know the ending. … As such, the fact that Trump […] Read more »
Why do so many people believe Trump will win?
… Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, a far more substantial popular vote victory than Gore had, yet she lost more crucial states than Gore did. Lesson learned. The focus this cycle is much more on the Electoral College and the key states that add […] Read more »
House ratings changes: A dozen races shift toward Democrats
Most Republicans believe their party weathered the 2018 storm and brighter days are ahead in 2020. But that perspective doesn’t mean the GOP’s chances of retaking the House are particularly good. … With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting, or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic […] Read more »
Trump is ‘pretty borderline for reelection’ despite booming economy
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at whether a robust economy could boost the president’s reelection chances. This Week, ABC News Read more »
How do pollsters predict UK general election results?
FT data journalist John Burn-Murdoch explains how researchers such as YouGov use MRP, or multi-level regression post-stratification polling, as the best way of showing how big national polls translate at the local level – and to predict who will win the most seats. Financial Times Read more »