Does the world really need another polling average? Well, sure. Actually, we think having a variety of polling averages matters a lot in the presidential primaries — and the one you look at can change how you view the race. So we’ve just launched our national polling average for the […] Read more »
When Voters Act Like Pundits
Pundits have long tried to put themselves in the shoes—actually the heads—of voters, attempting to understand what they’re thinking and why, as well as how they are likely to react to various circumstances. But with Democrats seemingly unified by just one thing—unseating President Trump—the fixation on electability is turning many […] Read more »
What Iowa Voters’ Second-Choice Picks Can Tell Us
Polling in presidential primary campaigns is notoriously fluid. In an effort to gauge movement among voters as they might change their mind and as candidates pop in and out of the race, pollsters will often ask voters about both their first-choice candidate and their backup. This question has been particularly […] Read more »
Looking to Iowa
If you think the Iowa caucus results are now settled, you have been paying inadequate attention to the history of this remarkable ritual of American politics. And with Iowa unsettled, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is far from over, because, as regulars are no doubt sick of reading, […] Read more »
Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear
Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »
Why the next 100 days are critical for Trump
The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated […] Read more »