Key Points• Democrats remain favored to hold the House, but it’s not hard to imagine what the GOP’s path to the majority would be.• Trump is crucial to that path: A highly-nationalized presidential election that devastates the roster of Democrats in Trump-won and marginal Clinton-won House seats would represent the […] Read more »
Fate of ‘National Security Democrats’ Provides Key to House Majority
Four months ago, seven freshman Democrats accelerated the impeachment process with an op-ed in The Washington Post. With less than a year before Election Day, their electoral fates represent a microcosm of the Republican challenge to win back the House majority. CONT. Nathan L. Gonzales, Inside Elections Read more »
Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down
Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »
This Iowa Poll Was Never Published. It’s Still Influencing What You Read.
The Des Moines Register spiked its poll Saturday night, but by the next day it seemed most reporters here had seen the numbers — or something purporting to be the numbers. … Here are what some reporters told me about how the poll affected their work: CONT. Ben Smith, BuzzFeed […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
With just a few hours to go before the voting starts in Iowa, it’s time for us to freeze the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast model! So here are our final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s […] Read more »
The Iowa caucuses are very unpredictable — as is the aftermath
We have reached the end of the beginning of the 2020 primary process and the beginning of the end. … It’s worth pointing out that, in addition to a revised system in which the Iowa Democratic Party will literally release multiple data points that could allow multiple campaigns to claim […] Read more »