Before the primary, Buttigieg said his campaign had the ‘strongest momentum.’ AP Photo/Mary Altaffer Daniel Palazzolo, University of Richmond and Ernest B. McGowen III, University of Richmond “I’ve got the ‘Big Mo,’” said George H. Bush after winning the Iowa caucuses in 1980. “We are the campaign with the strongest […] Read more »
28 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After New Hampshire
After an extremely confusing week in the Democratic presidential primary, I have some bad news: New Hampshire might not resolve as much as you think. That’s for two reasons. First, our study of past primaries finds that the bounces that result from New Hampshire are only about half as large […] Read more »
3 political handicapping mistakes to avoid
A few days ago, I heard a reporter who isn’t an authority on elections or voting behavior say that former Vice President Joe Biden’s problem is that his “message” hasn’t worked. Behold the first of three common political handicapping mistakes: putting too much weight into the message and not the […] Read more »
Beware of the Polls
As the Democratic race shifts into high gear and the fallout from the impeachment trial settles in I have a respectful and heartfelt cautionary admonition about polling data: Caveat emptor. Let’s begin with Iowa. Not one poll before the Iowa caucuses accurately captured what was happening. Most of the closing […] Read more »
Conditions are ripe for a contested Democratic convention in 2020
The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses were historic. They look to be the first caucuses in which at least four candidates reached or exceeded 15% of the vote. In fact, they mark the first time in any Democratic primary or caucuses that at least four candidates reached or exceeded at least […] Read more »
You’ll Never Know Which Candidate Is Electable
… Months of talking about the primary — and wondering whether candidates will eventually win the general election — has made electability a hot buzzword of the 2020 election. … To understand it better, researchers have looked at a couple of different kinds of social collisions: What voters like in […] Read more »