What’s going to happen? The Uber driver, learning my occupation, wants to know. So, too, newsroom colleagues who cover beats other than politics. So, too, family members, who not unreasonably imagine that I must have gained some insight by leaving them to travel here. Two words I have learned to […] Read more »
What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
It’s finally time for the Iowa caucuses! In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” Nate Silver discusses the latest data and what unknowns could still lead to a surprise result. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
CBS News Battleground Tracker: What could happen in Iowa on Monday?
Our final CBS News Iowa Battleground Tracker offers a statistical simulation of the caucuses and some scenarios that might unfold on Monday. It looks like a close contest heading in, and the top candidates are all poised to win national delegates. To show what could happen — and more importantly, […] Read more »
The Iowa Caucuses Are In 4 Days. Almost Anything Could Still Happen.
As much as we try to remind you all about how uncertain elections can be — pleas that sometimes fall on deaf ears — it’s important to keep in mind in advance of the Iowa caucuses. To begin with, primaries are much harder to poll than general elections, and caucuses […] Read more »
The Forecast before Iowans Caucus
This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Five Polling Trends from the Past Decade
As we enter a new decade, it may be useful (or at least interesting) to reflect on the major changes in polling during the past decade. The polling industry, especially that part of the industry that involves national polls conducted for news media consumption, is undergoing a major transition – […] Read more »