President Biden’s plunging approval rating is part of the reason Democrats did so badly in elections in New Jersey, Virginia and other places this month. But we don’t really know why Biden’s numbers have dropped so much. And that confusing, complicated dynamic is a good thing for the president — […] Read more »
Can Biden revive his popularity in time for midterm elections?
From Virginia to New Jersey, Democratic election woes this month had a common thread: the unpopularity of President Joe Biden. Biden’s influence on those states’ gubernatorial contests was no surprise. In a nationalized, polarized political era, a president’s standing offers the most powerful indicator of his party’s prospects. That makes […] Read more »
History says Biden and Democrats probably won’t recover by the midterms
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and […] Read more »
Journalists Are Hooked on Polls and They’ll Stay That Way
… To be a journalist is to be a soothsayer, especially for political journalists, who speculate on everything from who stands to win the next election to what the chances are that a bill might pass to what the president might do next. Pollsters and political journalists use poll data […] Read more »
Why Was the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race So Close?
… In New Jersey, Phil Murphy, the incumbent Democrat, beat Jack Ciattarelli, his Republican challenger, and became the first Democrat to win reëlection as the Garden State’s governor in forty-four years. But the result was much closer than expected. … On Election Night this week, the race between Murphy and […] Read more »
Biden’s in deep trouble. He can still bounce back
When Joe Biden ran for president in 2020, he had all the advantages of a nonincumbent in a year when everything had gone wrong. Biden waged a careful, disciplined campaign, built around a simple message: He would end the pandemic, rebuild the economy and restore normalcy. After the chaos of […] Read more »