Danielle Kurtzleben speaks with Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University, about the future of election polls after their recent failures to predict results. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
McAuliffe’s quote on schools was a clunker, but polls suggest parental backlash didn’t swing the election
Education became a surprisingly important factor in the final month of Virginia’s election for governor, with Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin successfully hammering Democrat Terry McAuliffe for saying during a debate, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” McAuliffe made the statement when he explained why […] Read more »
Virginia and New Jersey Elections in National Context
Elections for state offices reflect state-specific issues, the personalities and backstories of the candidates running for office, and the dynamics of the campaigns. State elections can also reflect trends and circumstances occurring at the national level. This last point is important, given the tendency of many observers to use the […] Read more »
Polls, Politics, and the 2021 Virginia and New Jersey Elections
Two notable things happened in the recent 2021 elections. First, there was a Republican swing in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Second, the polls were off in New Jersey, with the Democrat receiving only about 51% of the two-party vote, after being at about 54% in the polls. A three […] Read more »
What Democrats and Pollsters Missed in New Jersey One of the state’s top experts gets candid.
So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: […] Read more »
What Democrats Need to Realize Before 2022
For Democrats, the clearest message from Tuesday’s bruising election results is that bad things trickle down when a president from your own party confronts as much discontent as President Joe Biden faces now. The Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race and the unexpectedly close result in New Jersey’s—both states […] Read more »