To the Editor: As a pollster, may I add one more thought to the very enjoyable Oct. 23 column by David Brooks, “Poll Addict Confesses”? I wince every time I read poll reports that use the phrase “margin of error.” [cont.] Humphrey Taylor, The Harris Poll (NYT) More from Humphrey […] Read more »
Take debate research with grain of salt
As a pollster, I am obviously a numbers junkie, so Monday night was a cornucopia. Moment-to-moment dial-testing by multiple focus groups, instant polls, prolonged parsing of the numbers. It was all good entertainment, but not very good research. [cont.] David Hill Read more »
WPA’s Election Update: 2 Weeks Out
Sometimes even when you lose, you win. After a debate that has been described by most in the media as a “narrow loss,” Mitt Romney gained ground in all of the major national polls. But, some of the state-by-state polls suggest that Romney still trails in the Electoral College. So […] Read more »
Obama stays ahead – just
There are two versions of what has happened in the past three weeks in the battle to be US President. One is the version told by most nationwide polls and accepted by the media; the second, told by a minority of nationwide polls, including YouGov, and most polls in the […] Read more »
Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – 2012 edition
In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued that polls across California failed to accurately account for Latino voters in their samples, and that pre-election polls statewide […] Read more »
Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
Instant-reaction polls following Monday night’s debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner. … The first presidential debate produced roughly a 4-point bounce in head-to-head polls toward Mr. Romney, while the second presidential debate brought no appreciable bounce toward Mr. Obama. It is tempting to split […] Read more »